Monday, February 27, 2006

Iraqi civil war: the Iranian angle

Austin Bay writes at Strategypage that he does not foresee a Sunni against Shi'a civil war in Iraq. In fact, he believes the attack on the Golden Mosque will lead to a more determined crackdown on al Qaeda in Iraq. If there is an internal war, Strategypage contends it will be between pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian Shi'as. The Sunnis will not enter a civil war because they would be crushed by the numbers game.

The pro-Iranian forces are better armed. The Badr Militia and the Mahdi Army, which is led by Moqtada al-Sadr are both Iranian-supported. Bay writes that most Iraqis do not desire existing as an Iranian puppet state. While not as well armed as the Badr and Sadr factions, the anti-Iranian forces have the bigger numbers, according to Bay.

The whole struggle is complex. However, if Bay proves prescient, it leaves no doubt as to which side the US will support.


Blogger Joe Guarino said...

Good post. Let's hope this unfortunate series of events somehow points things in a positive direction.

Anonymous Glenn said...

With Iraq, you've got to think past the headlines. That's what I like about Bay's posts on Iraq and the war in general. He was posting on the Shi'a vengence killing long ago. As tumultuous as this all is, I prefer tangling with the demons unleashed by free people over those unleashed by a single totalitarian and his chosen few henchmen.


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