Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The Democrats grand '06 election strategy

John Hinderaker at Powerline takes a look at some of the latest polls and how they relate to this November's election. If the polls prove accurate, he concludes the Democrats plugged their crystal ball into the wrong frequency this summer:

The Gallup poll also finds the generic Congressional preference ballot even between the parties, among likely voters. Frankly, I think that's too good to be true. But it does illustrate a basic problem faced by the Democrats. Having chosen not to run on any positive program, they are at the mercy of events. If oil prices fall, voters are reminded of the Democrats' record on national security, etc., their superficially strong position could erode quickly.

The poll, if believed, has another piece of bad news for Democrats: among likely voters, Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to say that they are "extremely motivated" or "very motivated" to vote in November.

I like Hinderaker's story line. It may well prove true that the Democrats entered the '06 campaign season banking on driving to the checkered flag in a '74 Torino. A great car for its time and a great car to have today, but it's not crossing the finish line at Daytona anymore.

The Dems had their scandal and unpopular war lined up. Disgust over gas prices started rattling the lid on the boiling pot. You even had, and still do have, conservative talking heads mulling over the merits sitting out the race this go round to give the GOP a disciplinary fall from power. The scandal was sans scandal. The war is still unpopular, but unlike '74, we're still over there. There's no defining consensus to close shop and send the scraps to the sanitary landfill to fade away over time. As for the gas prices, more quick side trips to Hanging Rock appear eminent. We'll see the implications of the fourth scenario around November 7.

Who knows? America's oldest political party may turn out to be right, but there are indications that they may have taken a two-tire pit stop when a full change was the savier move.
They're taking a non-strategy strategy into battle for the third straight election. In any long race on the track, many different drivers may lead early. However, as the final laps wind down, you can tell who has the stronger car. In this election, the issue of national security is driving hard to the finish, neither too tight nor too loose.

For the third straight election, the Democrat Party had the opportunity to develop and offer an alternative view of national security and for the third straight time chose not to get behind the wheel of that machine. You avoid election trends at your own peril. We'll know more soon.

2 Comments:

Blogger bubba said...

It's all part of the Law of Unintended Consequences, Glenn.

Let's see how it plays out.

9/22/2006  
Blogger Glenn said...

Bubba, it will be an interesting outcome no what it is.

Thanks for bringing your avatar to the post.

9/24/2006  

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